Detail buku

No BukuT.IPB.2010.20
PenulisEvi Junaidi
PembimbingDr. Noer Azam Achsani
AbstrakABSTRAK INDONESIA : Tidak ada ABSTRAK INGGRIS : EVI JUNAIDI. 2010 The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Expenditure in ASEAN plus Theree. Supervised by NOER AZAM ACHSANI and SATWIKO DARMESTO. Fiscal policy is one of the government policy to increase growth in a reasonable level. The impact of fiscal policy shock has different effect on each country around the world. The effect of government spending shocks led to increase growth in USA but decrease growth in Germany, as reflected by the decline in private investment. This study aims to analyze the effects of government expenditure in ASEAN plus Three, by using vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response fuction (IRF), forecasting error variance decomposition (FEVD) and pass-trought effect. The data which is used in this research are Gross Domestic product (GDP), government spending, consumption, investment, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and interst rates. This data is annual data from the years 1970-2008. sources of data obtained from the Statistic Indonesia (BPS), CEIC and IFS. The result shows that the impact of government spending toward fiscal variable is the same in Asean +3 countries, expect in Singapore and Japan. The government spending increase is responded positive by GDP, consumption, and investment, while in Singapore and Japan is responded negative. The biggest positive response occurred in Indonesia and Philipines, while Thailand, Malaysia and Korea have relative thi same response. The shock of government spending toward monetary variable (CPI and interest rates) has a different impact in each country. Positive response of COI occurred in Korean and Malaysia, on the other hand negative. The increase of interest as the consequence of government spending happened in Philipines, Malaysia, Thailand and Korea, while in other countries the decrease of interest is occurred. Based on the result of Variance decomposition, GDP variables more dominant explained variability in GDP, consumption, and investment. Variability in CPI and interest rates in influenced by internal factor it’s self. Keywords: Fiscal policy, VECM, IRF, FEVD and pass-trought effect