Detail buku

No BukuT.IPB.2001.01.1
PenulisSri Pujiyati
PembimbingDr.Ir.ahmad Ansori Mattjik,MSc
AbstrakABSTRAK INDONESIA : Tidak ada ABSTRAK INGGRIS : Export, is needed significantly to produce device. It grows not only national production sector especially eksport oriented but also it absorbs manpower. Non oil and pertroleum export, has shwon an important escalation, especially after the price of crude oil dropped in world trading in 1981 which lead to the length of world recession. For Indonesia, the effect of unstable oil price in the International market need to be responded with new alternative solution namely by making the efficient use of other more marketable commodities outward oil and petroleum. Agriculture, as one of non-oil and petroleum sector, has and Important role in bringing Indonesia as agricultural country in which most of people depend mainly on agriculture. The devolupment of agricultural sector of Indonesia during the 11 years (1990-2000) tended to fluctuate. During the 1990-1997 periods, increased continuously with the average growh was 11 percent every year, it then decreased in 1998 and again incrased in 1999. Generally, the average of percentage of agriculture export non-oil and petroleum export is 40,94% whereas to the total export is 29,7%. In doing the time series analysis, the data will be divided into two parts. Those are January 1990 December 1997 and January 1998- December 2000. some models, which will be applied are like Linear Trend, Additive Decomposition, Additive Winters and ARIMA models. Based on 1990-1997 data and 1998-2000 data, the best method is The Addative Decomposition. This is because of generating least MAPE and independent error. For forecasting Indonesian Agriculture export in 2001, it would be better to use model with 1998-2000 data. This is due to the fact that use of 1990-1997 data is useless in which the pattern of 1990-1997 and 1998-2000 data changed/discontinous.